Turning Point Capital

INSIGHTS & OPINIONS

2025 Commercial Real Estate Outlook: A Strategic Reset for Institutional Capital

Marcus Emadi | Director at Turning Point Capital

CONTENTS

Navigating the CRE Reset: Opportunity in Dislocation

After two years of market disruption and valuation pressure, 2025 marks a decisive shift for the commercial real estate (CRE) sector. Higher-for-longer interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and structural shifts in occupier demand have recalibrated expectations—but also opened new lanes for strategic capital deployment.

At Turning Point Capital, we see 2025 not as a return to normal, but as a strategic reset—where dislocation creates entry points, and disciplined capital finds opportunity amid uncertainty.

Macro Tailwinds Are Stabilizing the Market

Investor confidence is beginning to firm up as inflation trends downward and central banks signal the end of aggressive rate hikes. While transaction volumes remain below pre-2022 levels, liquidity is gradually returning—especially for core-plus and value-add assets in sectors with resilient fundamentals.

Key market stabilizers in 2025:

  • Gradual rate moderation
  • Improved price discovery
  • Increased buyer-seller alignment
  • Renewed interest from private equity and sovereign capital

Still, refinancing risk, valuation mismatches, and outdated asset stock continue to shape a bifurcated market.

 

Repricing Is Creating Strategic Entry Points

One of the most significant changes in 2025 is the repricing of risk. Cap rates have adjusted upward across most asset classes, particularly in office, retail, and secondary logistics. This has created opportunities for investors with dry powder and a long-term view.

Where we see value:

  • Distressed debt portfolios with strong underlying assets
  • Class B office repositioning in high-barrier urban submarkets
  • Refinance-driven sales at discounted valuations
  • Off-market transactions led by relationship-driven sourcing

For well-capitalized buyers, this environment offers rare access to institutional-grade assets at rebased pricing.

Debt Markets: Selective, But Opening Up

Financing remains a challenge—but not an impasse. Traditional lenders are cautious, particularly around office and high-leverage construction, but non-bank lenders, insurance capital, and debt funds are increasingly active.

Emerging trends in real estate credit:

  • Increased role of private credit and structured finance
  • Preferential treatment for ESG-compliant assets
  • Growing appetite for mezzanine and whole-loan strategies
  • Defensive positioning through strong covenants and downside protection

As a result, capital stack creativity is critical in 2025.

 

Sector Breakdown: Winners and Watch Zones

Industrial & Logistics

  • Rents are still rising in constrained submarkets, but the explosive growth of 2020–2022 has moderated.
  • Investors are shifting toward infill, last-mile assets and vertically integrated platforms.

Multifamily / Residential

  • Remains a favored asset class due to structural undersupply, rent stability, and demographic drivers.
  • Co-living, single-family build-to-rent, and PBSA (Purpose-Built Student Accommodation) are all drawing fresh capital.

Office

  • A highly bifurcated space. Trophy, ESG-aligned assets in core urban markets remain resilient.
  • Obsolete stock is facing sharp valuation write-downs—and opportunities for conversion or repositioning.

Retail

  • Selective recovery, especially in grocery-anchored and mixed-use formats.
  • Retail parks and convenience-led assets are proving surprisingly resilient.

Data Centers & Life Sciences

  • Continue to attract capital due to long-term growth trajectories and strong tenant credit profiles.

 

ESG and Technology Are No Longer Optional

Institutional capital now demands ESG alignment and digital readiness—not just as risk mitigants, but as value drivers.

ESG Priorities for 2025:

  • Energy-efficient retrofits to meet regulatory tightening
  • Carbon transparency and reporting
  • Social value integration in mixed-use and community-driven projects

Proptech Themes Gaining Ground:

  • Smart building automation
  • Predictive maintenance and tenant analytics
  • AI-assisted underwriting and asset management

Investors and occupiers alike are prioritizing buildings that are resilient, responsive, and responsible.

Talent and Technology Are Reshaping CRE Firms

Real estate firms are evolving fast to compete in this new cycle. The most agile players are blending traditional expertise with digital capabilities, enhanced data analytics, and multidisciplinary teams that can navigate complexity.

Top-performing firms are:

  • Leveraging AI and automation to improve portfolio insights
  • Embedding risk modeling into investment committees
  • Upskilling teams to understand ESG regulations, tax, and carbon pricing
  • Investing in cross-border capabilities to source deals globally

Talent and Technology Are Reshaping CRE Firms

Real estate firms are evolving fast to compete in this new cycle. The most agile players are blending traditional expertise with digital capabilities, enhanced data analytics, and multidisciplinary teams that can navigate complexity.

Top-performing firms are:

  • Leveraging AI and automation to improve portfolio insights
  • Embedding risk modeling into investment committees
  • Upskilling teams to understand ESG regulations, tax, and carbon pricing
  • Investing in cross-border capabilities to source deals globally

Outlook: A Year to Play Offense—Cautiously

2025 is not about chasing momentum—it’s about thoughtful allocation, forward-looking fundamentals, and selective risk-taking. Capital discipline is paramount, but so is agility. The investors who can navigate complexity, move fast on dislocation, and structure creatively will have the edge.

At Turning Point Capital, our focus is on:

  • Identifying resilient income streams with inflation protection
  • Targeting sectors backed by demographic and structural demand
  • Aligning with best-in-class operators and sourcing off-market deal flow
  • Managing downside risk through rigorous underwriting and adaptive capital structuring

Final Thought: CRE Is Entering a New Era

2025 marks a generational opportunity to invest in real estate at the bottom of a pricing cycle. The past two years have reset expectations—but also set the stage for long-term growth, innovation, and value creation.

For institutional investors willing to lean into complexity, the next phase of CRE isn’t about recovery—it’s about reinvention.

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Olympia Shabangu

Olympia Shabangu

Meet Olympia Shabangu, a seasoned professional specialising in capital markets and structured finance, currently serving as Director – Capital Markets at Amicorp Capital (DIFC) Ltd. In her role, Olympia offers comprehensive end-to-end structured finance and capital markets solutions, including advisory, agency services, fiduciary functions, arranging issuance, and listing of financial instruments.

Olympia attained her law degree from the University of the Witwatersrand and completed her articles at Blakes Maphanga Attorneys, gaining valuable legal experience that complements her expertise in financial services.
In addition to her professional commitments, Olympia has contributed writings on Medium, sharing insights and engaging with a broader audience on topics related to her field.

Through her extensive experience and strategic position at Amicorp Capital (DIFC) Ltd., Olympia continues to play a pivotal role in delivering innovative and compliant financial solutions, effectively navigating the complexities of the capital markets landscape.

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Jafar Hamid

Jafar Hamid

Jafar Hamid is a seasoned financial professional specialising in wealth management and investment advisory services, with a focus on high-net-worth individuals and institutional clients. His expertise encompasses strategic asset allocation, risk management, and financial planning, aiming to optimize investment returns while mitigating risks.

 

In July 2009, Jafar joined HSBC Private Bank in London as Managing Director for Key Accounts. Prior to this, he led the key accounts desk in UBS’s South Asian team, where he honed his skills in managing complex client portfolios and delivering tailored financial solutions.

 

By December 2012, Jafar had transitioned to JP Morgan’s private bank, taking on the role of Executive Director. In this capacity, he focused on India-centric banking services, leveraging his deep understanding of the South Asian market to cater to the unique needs of his clients.

 

Throughout his career, Jafar has demonstrated a commitment to excellence and a client-centric approach, establishing himself as a trusted advisor in the financial industry. His extensive experience and strategic vision have contributed significantly to the growth and success of the institutions he has been part of.

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Ezekiela Alatiit

Ezekiela Alatiit leads communications at Turning Point Capital, bringing over seven years of sales and marketing experience within the investment space. Based in London, she specialises in strategic messaging, media relations, and brand positioning—key elements in elevating the firm’s presence in the market. Ezekiela has worked with leading institutions including Morgan Stanley, PGIM, and Natixis, and her approach blends clarity with commercial insight. She holds a degree from the University of Newcastle and is an active contributor to industry panels and publications. Ezekiela’s ability to connect with stakeholders and drive impactful narratives makes her a crucial part of the Turning Point team.

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Loredana Longo

As Head of Private Clients at Turning Point Capital, Loredana Longo oversees the firm’s relationships with high-net-worth individuals and families across Far East Asia, South America, and North America. With over ten years of experience and a degree in Economics and International Management from the University of Leeds, Loredana crafts tailored investment strategies with a deep understanding of cross-border wealth dynamics. She collaborates closely with legal, tax, and investment professionals to deliver integrated solutions. Fluent in multiple languages and recognised for her cultural awareness, Loredana is trusted for her discretion, empathy, and strategic perspective—making her a key driver of Turning Point Capital’s global private client offering.

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Marcus Emadi

Marcus Emadi

Marcus Emadi is the Director of Turning Point Capital and a seasoned expert in real estate finance, with over a decade of experience across M&A, debt, and capital markets. Known for his strategic insight and execution, Marcus advises clients on complex transactions including equity raising, investment disposals, and bespoke finance structures. His background spans both advisory and principal investment roles, giving him a well-rounded perspective on deal structuring. With a vast network of institutional investors, developers, and operators, Marcus brings invaluable market knowledge to every engagement. He holds a First Class Honours Masters in International Business Management from the University of Manchester and is a Member of ARAD.

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Abdul Buhari OLY

Abdul Buhari serves as a Relationship Manager at Credit Suisse Private Bank, focusing on High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs) and Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs). In this role, he provides tailored financial solutions, leveraging his expertise to manage and grow clients’ wealth effectively. Balancing his athletic career with his professional responsibilities, Abdul worked part-time in operations support at Credit Suisse while training for the 2012 Olympics. His unique background as an elite athlete has instilled in him a strong work ethic, discipline, and a commitment to excellence, qualities that he brings to his role in the financial industry.

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Farooq Hakim

Meet Farooq Hakim, a seasoned technology executive and Vice President for Strategic Accounts at Oracle Corporation, focusing on key clients across the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region. With over 30 years of experience in telecommunications and IT, he has held leadership roles in major organisations such as BT and Microsoft, driving digital transformation, cloud adoption, and technology innovation.

 

At Oracle, he leverages his deep expertise to help enterprises modernise their IT infrastructure, optimising cloud solutions for scalability, security, and operational efficiency. His extensive background in client and contract management (as COO & VP), technology innovation (as CIO & CTO), and business development (as Bid Director and Deal Architect) makes him a strategic leader in the field. He is also accredited in programme management (APM) and holds a TOGAF certification in enterprise architecture, further strengthening his ability to drive complex transformation projects.

 

Beyond his corporate responsibilities, Farooq has contributed to shaping enterprise IT strategies and advising organisations on emerging technologies, AI, and cloud computing. His track record of success in programme delivery, IT governance, and stakeholder management has earned him a reputation as a trusted leader in the technology sector.

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Meet Caspar Nixon, a strategic and results-driven corporate affairs leader, specialising in reputation strategy; building corporate trust; policy communications; crisis and issues management; and product & consumer PR – across technology, FMCG, retail, financial services and government sectors.

 

Over 12 years of experience advising senior leaders and managing external communications for high profile and complex organisations including: CommBank, Virgin Mobile, Toyota, Google, Coca-Cola, Diageo, Unilever UK, The Industry Trust, Facebook, Telefonica (O2 UK) and the National Health Service.

 

For the past seven years I have led Uber’s corporate and product communications in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

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Victor Boys

Victor Boys

Victor Boys is a seasoned Chartered Surveyor (MRICS) with extensive experience in the real estate sector, most recently specialising in Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) and the office schemes. His expertise spans overseeing commercial development, valuation, and strategic asset optimisation, ensuring maximum value and performance for investors and stakeholders.


With a strong background in property valuation across multiple asset classes, Victor provides accurate assessments for investment, financing, and strategic planning. His deep knowledge of PBSA and office markets allows him to deliver tailored insights that drive operational efficiency and enhance asset profitability.

 

Victor is also skilled in lease negotiations, tenant relations, and regulatory compliance, making him a trusted advisor in complex commercial real estate transactions. His ability to balance investment returns with tenant satisfaction ensures long-term stability and growth in the properties he manages.


Beyond his technical expertise, Victor is known for his leadership and mentorship within the surveying community. He remains actively engaged in industry trends and best practices, contributing to the professional development of his peers. His commitment to high standards and ethical practices continues to shape the evolving landscape of BTR, PBSA and office sectors across the UK.

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